Abstract

Tricycles like all other vehicles have been known to contribute to road accident globally, especially in Asia where its seen as one of the most popular means of transport. Safety assessment of autorickshaw in some notable countries discovered that the fatality rate of tricycle accidents has been rising steadily. The severity of injuries from tricycle accidents has been attributed to the design flaws of tricycles, especially the absence of seatbelt and paddings of hard surfaces. Weekly data of accidents due to tricycle and associated fatalities were sourced from the regional divisional unit National Road Safety outfit the period January 2012 to June 2022. A regression with ARIMA errors was employed to model the data. The results showed that the regression with ARIMA (1,0,3) errors was retained as the best model for estimating road fatalities caused by tricycle accidents from January 2012 to June 2022. Thus, the ARIMA component combines an AR(1) and MA(3) terms. The exogenous factor, tricycle accidents, was tested and found to be statistically significant relative to its contribution to the fatalities. Also, the time series components were deemed to be relevant contributing factors to the fatalities suffered from the period of January 2012 to June 2022. Again, the forecasted figures from July 2022 to October 2022 largely exhibited a sinusoidal behaviour with some spikes at various weeks of these months. It was recommended, for purposes of intervention by stakeholders, that tricycle drivers undergo mandatory refresher courses on safety driving techniques and general road safety regulations. Also, the licensing regime among these folks should be strengthen, and perhaps, the government should create separate lanes along some major routes within the metropolitan, municipal, and district assemblies of the region to reduce these negative incidents if not eliminated.