Abstract

Despite its technological advancements, the Indian economy is still heavily dependent on Agriculture. As per India economy Survey 2018, 50% of the Indian workforce was involved in agriculture and related practices, and the agriculture sector contributed 17-18% to the G . A large chunk of this agriculture is still rain-fed; hence, Monsoon forecasts are an essential resource for the farmers. Further, an accurate prediction arrival date of the Monsoon is helpful even for civic bodies for planning and management purposes. In this paper, we try to predict the arrival date of the Monsoon using the data on the migration patterns of various birds.
We use the crowdsourced data on the eBird platform to track the migration of the birds, and this data is then used to predict the date of arrival of the Monsoon across various places in India using spatio-temporal and state space models.