Tuesday 18 July 4 p.m. - 5:25 a.m. (Canada/Eastern)
Abstract
We introduce an extension of Nagin's finite mixture model to underlying Beta distributions and present our R package trajeR which allows to calibrate the model. Then, we test the model and illustrate some of the possibilities of trajeR by means of an example with simulated data. In a second part of the paper, we use this model to analyze COVID-19 related data during the first part of the pandemic. We identify a classification of the world into five groups of countries with respect to the evolution of the contamination rate and show that the median population age is the main predictor of group membership. We do however not see any sign of efficiency of the sanitary measures taken by the different countries against the propagation of the virus.
