Abstract

The Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (QGDP) is one of the most critical short-term economic indicators to decision-makers. Abu Dhabi is the capital emirate of the federation of seven emirates which form the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi’s economy is unique amongst oil-producing nations in that roughly half of the real GDP is attributed directly to oil activities; it is such a significant proportion that it is labeled the oil economy. This makes the QGDP indicators even more critical in order to ensure the diversification targets of the non-oil economy are being met and the long-term health of the economy is safeguarded.
The QGDP is compiled using a combination of administrative and survey data from the Quarterly Economic Survey (QES). Prior to 2021, the QGDP was compiled at both real and nominal levels for a total of 27 economic activities and sub-activities according to the ISIC-4 classification. Most activities used a combination of survey and administrative data while a few were purely admin-based.
In 2021, the Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) was expanded from a purposive sample of roughly 120 establishments to approximately 1,000 establishments. It included a more detailed questionnaire similar to the Annual Economic Survey (AES), with the aim of improving the consistency between the pre-benchmarked QGDP and the annual estimates. Due to this expansion, the QGDP methodology changed from processing 27 activities individually, several of them on an ISIC two-digit or sub-activities level, to processing 17 activities at the 1-digit level without sub-activities based on the new methodology. A majority of these activities extracted the nominal value added directly through the survey results, with the administrative data used as validation indicators instead of directly being used in processing and the real value added produced as a result of deflating the nominal series, as opposed to previously being derived through the survey.
This paper will provide an in-depth overview of both methods, with the real test lying in observing which method of producing the QGDP aligns more closely with the annual estimates.