Model Assisted Approach to Estimate Production and Sales of the Manufacturing Sector in the Philippines
64th ISI World Statistics Congress - Ottawa, Canada
Format: CPS Abstract
Session: CPS 56 - Statistical estimation VI
Tuesday 18 July 4 p.m. - 5:25 p.m. (Canada/Eastern)
The Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries (MISSI) is a national survey with 920 sample establishments conducted by the Philippine Statistics Authority. The survey generates indices on value and volume of production and sales of the manufacturing sector to measure changes over time. With manufacturing sector as a major driver of economic growth of the Philippines, generation of high-frequency statistics in terms of levels is beneficial and contributes to a more comprehensive analysis of performance. However, MISSI is not designed to generate reliable levels of production and sales as it utilizes a cut-off sampling design using value of production as the cut-off variable. Hence, levels of production and sales from MISSI survey-based results will be biased upward as the sample establishments of the survey are the big players of the manufacturing sector.
This paper presents a model-assisted approach in the estimation of production and sales using the results of MISSI and auxiliary information from the population of establishments, instead of conducting a separate survey which requires higher sample size and higher budget. Results indicate that the model-assisted formula generates reliable estimate of level of production and reduces the upward bias from the MISSI survey-based results.