Abstract

Currently, the role of tourism plays a vital role in the Indonesian economy. In general, the economic impact can be measured by the contribution of the sector's economic value to the national economy's value. Based on BPS data, the contribution of tourism to national output/production reached 4.32 percent and contributed 4.13 percent of the total national GDP. In addition, the role of wages and salaries on the national labor compensation for pepper in 2016 reached 3.86 percent of the national wage, and the tax on the resulting net production contributes to the tax on the actual national net output of 3.84 percent. This data shows the decline in tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic still tends to be volatile, so it must be monitored and maintained its stability. Information regarding future tourist visits is needed as input in the formulation of macroeconomic policies and programs. This information can be obtained through forecasting. The method used in this research is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). This study aimed to determine the model and results of forecasting the number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia using the ARIMA method. The results in this study obtained the best ARIMA model, namely the ARIMA Y ̂_t=〖0.57642 Y〗_(t-1)-0.198602〖 e〗_(t-1)+〖0.999 e〗_(t-2)+e_t with the MAPE value of 6.276.