Nowcasting Official Poverty Statistics in the Philippines
64th ISI World Statistics Congress - Ottawa, Canada
Format: CPS Abstract
Keywords: forecasting, poverty
Session: CPS 33 - Statistics and poverty analysis I
Monday 17 July 5:30 p.m. - 6:30 p.m. (Canada/Eastern)
Cognizant of the need to generate timely, relevant, and granular statistics for monitoring and policymaking, measuring poverty during periods where data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) is still being collected is essential. This paper explored an alternative methodology through the use of a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) in state-space form to generate nowcasts of poverty incidence. A two-stage modeling approach was implemented, wherein dynamic factors were extracted from collected time series data on macroeconomic and employment indicators and then utilized to construct a poverty incidence model. The constructed DFMs were evaluated in terms of forecast accuracy in predicting values of poverty incidences among families in the Philippines.