EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE ON THE DOMESTIC FINANCIAL SECTOR Ruslan Motoryn1 Tetiana Motoryna2 Kateryna Prykhodko3
1Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics, Ukraine motoryn@i.ua 2Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine t.motoryna@i.ua 3Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine kateryna.prykhodko@gmail.com
The article examines the impact of the war on the financial sector of Ukraine, systematizes the mechanisms of manifestation of this impact. The consequences of Russia's attack on Ukraine have affected the entire world economy and Europe in particular. The features of the impact of the war on the economy in domestic conditions are revealed. The continuation of the war exacerbates most of the risks. The largest one, credit risk, is already being realized and the losses from it will grow in the future. Financial institutions are gradually recognizing credit losses and reflecting the impact of negative events on asset quality. The National Bank of Ukraine restored the requirements for credit risk assessment and, in particular, for calculating the number of days past due on loans. Limited demand for loans, especially from households, worsening portfolio quality, and higher provisioning increases profitability risks. The dynamics of the ratio of the volume of loans, bank deposits and other indicators of the financial sector of Ukraine was analyzed. The role of bank lending in combating the consequences of military aggression is revealed, and measures aimed at mitigating its negative impact on the economy are substantiated. An analysis of the dynamics of indicators of non-banking financial institutions was also made. They have just begun to recover from the negative impact of the pandemic, they have felt all the risks of war. Unlike banks, part of the market did not cope with operational risks: financial institutions stopped working, processes were disrupted and information was lost. Currently, only about two-thirds of the sector submits financial statements. The volume of transactions of non-banking financial institutions has significantly decreased. Demand for insurance and lending has fallen, the quality of the loan portfolio of credit unions and financial companies is deteriorating. Measures aimed at improving the state of the financial sector of Ukraine are substantiated.
Keywords: financial sector, war, banking, loans, deposits, non-bank financial institutions.
