Forecast of malaria morbidity and mortality using climatic and non-climatic data
64th ISI World Statistics Congress - Ottawa, Canada
Format: CPS Abstract
Session: CPS 10 - Disease and mortality modelling
Monday 17 July 8:30 a.m. - 9:40 a.m. (Canada/Eastern)
Mathematical malaria transmission models are increasingly used for evaluating the effects of control interventions on disease dynamics. However, our knowledge about their forecasting potentials for early warning systems compared to purely statistical models is limited. We discuss spatio-temporal statistical models to forecast malaria; and project future malaria burden based on scenarios driven by climatic and non-climatic factors.