Multi-stage Modeling of the Multi-peak Behavior of the Solar Cycle
Conference
64th ISI World Statistics Congress - Ottawa, Canada
Format: IPS Abstract
Session: IPS 266 - Statistics for Astronomy
Wednesday 19 July 10 a.m. - noon (Canada/Eastern)
Abstract
We develop a data-driven approach to describe the multi-peak behavior of the solar activity cycle. The method builds upon a multilevel Bayesian model for a single-peaked solar cycle. While the latter uses only monthly mean sunspot numbers as a proxy for solar activity, our approach incorporates additional physical data and uses Gaussian process regression to capture complex features of the solar cycle that are missed by the single-peak, single-proxy model. We demonstrate the capabilities of our methodology using hindcasts of previous cycle morphologies, and we make a prediction for the timing and characteristics of the upcoming solar cycle maximum.