Abstract

This talk investigates changes in the North Atlantic Basin's tropical cyclone record from 1850-current. While most ocean basins in the world are not showing vast changes in tropical cyclone frequencies and/or individual storm strengths, the Atlantic Basin entered a period of very high storm activity circa 1995. Statistically, a multiple changepoint analysis of the Basin's record is conducted. This analysis is based on a penalized likelihood developed from minimum description length information theory principles and Poisson dynamics. Optimizing the penalized likelihood with a genetic algorithm yields estimates of the changepoint numbers and their location time(s). In addition to the 1995 change, some other interesting findings will be presented. Despite the recent increase in storms, we do not find any evidence that the individual storms are getting stronger.