64th ISI World Statistics Congress - Ottawa, Canada

64th ISI World Statistics Congress - Ottawa, Canada

Evidence changes beliefs and measuring change in beliefs measures evidence

Conference

64th ISI World Statistics Congress - Ottawa, Canada

Format: IPS Abstract

Keywords: bias, evidence

Session: IPS 221 - Statistical evidence: Bayes, likelihood, frequentist and game-theoretic viewpoints

Monday 17 July 2 p.m. - 3:40 p.m. (Canada/Eastern)

Abstract

The concept of statistical evidence is central to the field of statistics. In spite of this, it is reasonable to conclude, based on current debates, that the field has not settled on how to exactly define and measure statistical evidence. There is, however, a fairly simple characterization whenever a prior is incorporated into the analysis. In that context the Bayes factor seems to provide this, but there are still concerns that need to addressed. These issues are discussed together with their resolution. Overall, this necessitates an approach to statistical problems that combines Bayesian and frequentist attributes to provide a logically sound methodology. We achieve, not only a relatively simple characterization of statistical evidence, but a resolution between what can be considered as very different views of statistics and its role in science.