Abstract

Censuses in the modern context have taken place in Ireland since 1841 - decennially until 1951 and every five years since. In between censuses, Annual Population and Migration estimates are calculated by trending forward the previous Census of Population using births and deaths data from administrative records and migration estimates from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) Labour Force Survey.

Like most other countries who conduct a traditional Census the CSO is facing increasing challenges and new data needs/requirements in estimating populations. Many of these will not be addressed by the traditional CSO approach to Census taking.

In December 2021 the CSO published a research paper producing population statistics using data collected from 18 different administrative sources for the first time. The Irish Population Estimates from Administrative Data Sources (IPEADS) uses pseudonymised administrative data from public sector bodies as an experimental method of producing population statistics. It forms part of the development and modernisation of population and demography statistics for Ireland over the next decade. The publication is based on an experimental and developing methodology and illustrated both the potential of administrative data to produce demographic statistics and highlight the challenges that arise.

Census taking across the world has gone through enormous change as methodological and technological advances are increasingly adopted by census taking countries worldwide. The
Census models used internationally to measure population now involve:
• Traditional enumeration of the population
• Use of existing secondary data sources to compile population estimates
• Combinations of the above

Ireland is currently considering which of these models best meet the needs of the users of demographic statistics taking into a number of key issues which need to be addressed, some irrespective of the mode of data collection:
• Meeting new data requirements
• The costs of traditional census operations
• Developing administrative data-based population statistics
• Estimating difficult to enumerate populations
• Falling response rates in official statistics
• Meeting the new EU population statistics regulations (ESOP)

The presentation will provide an overview of the IPEADS research carried out by the CSO, consideration of the challenges which need to be overcome. It will review the use of administrative based population data, not just as the basis for the production of demographic statistics, but also as the basis for a person-based sample framework.